Battlefield Tourist

As I get ready to head back, I have to admit, there's a bit of apprehension on my mind, unlike before. The primary problem is that in the past week, President Karzai's allies are beginning to withdraw their support. In fact, the three main generals of the Northern Alliance have left Karzai's side and are united together behind one of their own. So now there is one sizable alliance that is predominately Tajik and another run by Karzai (a Pashtun). Karzai, trying to stay diverse, has added the brother of uber-famous hero Massoud (a Tajik) to his ticket as well as a man from the minority Hezzarra people (In Afghanistan there are two vice presidents).
The three generals who split off; Karzai's Foreign Minister Abdullah, Karzai's Defense Minister Fahim, and Karzai's Education Minister Yoonus Qanooni are in controld f tens of thousands of armed militiamen in and around Kabul, some say up to 50,000. To many people it appeared as though Karzai booted Fahim from his ticket as a signal that the warlords are finished. Fahim, the country's most powerful warlord, isn't liking the tone and is heading in a different direction than Karzai.
The real problem is that Afghanistan has never once settled a political problem at the ballot box. It is always done on the battlefield. I have very serious feelings that Afghanistan is on the brink of a civil war. It just feels different going back.

Then this....

WASHINGTON, July 31: The United States has warned its citizens that the security situation in Afghanistan is still critical and there is a general threat to all Americans visiting the country. The new travel warning, which supersedes the one issued in February, warned US citizens against travel to Afghanistan. "There is an ongoing threat to kidnap and assassinate US citizens and non-governmental organization workers throughout the country," the warning said. The State Department also warned Americans that the Afghan authorities' ability to "maintain order and ensure the security of citizens and visitors is limited". "Remnants of the former Taliban regime and the terrorist Al Qaeda network, and other groups hostile to the government, remain active. US-led military operations continue." Travel in all areas of Afghanistan, including Kabul, is unsafe due to military operations, landmines, banditry, and armed rivalry among political and tribal groups, the warning said. There was also the possibility of terrorist attacks, including attacks using vehicular or other improvised explosive devices. "The security environment remains volatile and unpredictable." The State Department reminded Americans that Afghanistan was having presidential elections on Oct 9 and violent incidents aimed at disrupting the election may escalate as the election date draws closer. There have been several incidents of election violence, including an attack on a UN bus carrying Afghan election workers in Jalalabad. That incident resulted in three deaths and ten wounded, the statement said. The State Department pointed out that there have been a number of attacks on international organizations, international aid workers, and foreign interests and nationals, including the killing of a UNHCR worker in Ghazni and car bombing in front of the UN compound in Kandahar, both in November last year. There have also been several attacks on International Security Assistance Forces, resulting in deaths and injuries, including two deadly attacks in January this year, the department said. Although the United Nations has resumed operations, which were temporarily suspended in the aftermath of these attacks, the UN continues to be the target of attacks throughout the country. In June, a UN and NGO convoy was ambushed in Gardez, a UN demining team was ambushed with rocket-propelled grenades in Loghar, and a UNHCR convoy was ambushed with RPGS and small arms fire in Kandahar, the statement said. Over the past year there have been several unsuccessful rocket attacks in Kabul and elsewhere in Afghanistan, including a rocket landing in a field opposite the embassy compound in December last year and another that landed in the ISAF compound near the embassy in June, an explosion in the perimeter wall of the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul on Nov 22 and an explosion at the ministry of interior on June 5. Family members of American officials assigned to the US embassy in Kabul are not allowed to reside in Afghanistan. In addition, unofficial travel to Afghanistan by US government employees and their family members requires prior approval by the Department of State. The department warned that terrorist actions in Afghanistan may include suicide operations, bombings, rocket attacks, assaults or kidnappings. Possible threats include conventional weapons such as explosive devises or non-conventional weapons, including chemical or biological agents.